Community chest

I remember the night of the first national lottery draw. I confess I got whipped up in the frenzy of media excitement; planned what I would spend the money on; what charities I would support; what substances I was going to become addicted to; plane or helicopter (not easy). I listened to all the number picking advice - go for numbers greater than 31 so as to avoid birthdays. Yeah, 'cause like sharing 8 million quid with 3 people would be a real bummer! Anyway I bought a ticket. Surprisingly the first 3 numbers out of the machine were also on my ticket. The next number was only 1 different (i.e. 42 and I had 41) and the remaining two were no more than 3 out. A quick comparison between my ticket and the winning numbers would get your pulse racing - couldn't resist that one on my mother, thought she was gonna explode, bless her. I hadn't won the jackpot but I had one a tenner.

Now despite the fact that I know more than I ever want to about statistics and thus was fully aware that each weeks draw is independent of any other, I couldn't help thinking that I was never come that close again. In truth, I probably wasn't. Not because I had already had come close and the Ether, some how knowing this, wouldn't configure itself to my favor again (like it does with QPR. Damn you Universe!!). But simply because it is an event unlikely ever to happen. To be honest I was a little disappointed in myself for not remaining the emotionally detached scientist so I made up a rule. I could only buy a lottery ticket if I choose the previous weeks winning numbers. It acts as a kind of mental reminder that 'It probably won't be me'. It also ensures I never buy more than one ticket - owning two with the same numbers means that, at best, you just end up sharing the winnings with yourself. Something which is guaranteed to put a strain on any relationship. I also rarely know last weeks winning numbers so I rarely bother.

It is easy to believe that statistics is straight forward, when in fact it is a very tricky tool to wield correctly. For an example of how an apparently simple gameshow can confuse even the best statisticians check out the Monty Hall problem (aka Montys Goat). I once got very agitated with a mates wife as she kept insisting that the numbers 1,2,3,4,5 & 6 where far less likely to be drawn in the national lottery than any other particular set of numbers, despite accepting that all numbers where equally likely. So when you get the option to dance with chance, say no thanks and take a community chest instead. You never know, it might be your birthday or better still your bank might pay you a dividend! (Jesus, what a tenuous link to the title!)